Economic consequences of Ramaphosa’s foreign policy blunder are worrisome
The President's weak and amorphous foreign policy has thrust the country's diplomatic position into stasis
Nelson Mandela's legacy is a timeless beacon of selflessness, vanguard of the weak and vulnerable, moral rectitude, and fearlessness in the face of world bullies. Sadly, President Cyril Ramaphosa falls far short of the standards set by Mandela and Thabo Mbeki. With indecision, indifference, ineptitude, and insufferable foreign policy machinations, he has morphed into a pitiful shadow of these two great leaders.
Let me explain.
The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has become South Africa’s biggest foreign policy disaster and history-altering event with dire implications for a democracy that is fast hurtling towards pariah state status.
While China and Russia seem to be in a unified alliance of hostility towards the West with their eyes fixated on their respective national interests, South Africa appears to have a more ambiguous stance, balancing between competing interests and affiliations with the dexterity of a drunk trying to walk a straight line.
On the same day as Ramaphosa announced his impending “peace talks” jaunt to Moscow and Kyiv with a group of other African leaders, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) sheepishly distanced itself from SA army chief Lieutenant General Lawrence Mbatha’s reported “combat readiness” trip to Russia.
Clearly this is not how to set the table for leading peace talks as a trusted mediator when you’re engaged in “combat readiness” a few months after conducting naval exercises with one of the protagonists in a war conflict you seek to help end.
Ramaphosa’s weak and amorphous foreign policy has thrust the country's diplomatic position into stasis, particularly evident in the ongoing war in Ukraine. By struggling to decide which side to support, Ramaphosa has portrayed indecisiveness and lack of direction. While DIRCO attempts to project a non-aligned stance, the ANC government’ overt military associations with Russia render such illusions futile. These actions have eroded our credibility as a responsible global actor committed to upholding international norms, values, and human rights.
The ANC government’s association with Putin has alarming economic implications. The docking of the Russian military cargo vessel, Lady R, at Simonstown naval base, and the landing of a sanctioned Russian cargo plane at Waterkloof air force base, indicate a concerning disregard for the concerns of one our key allies. These incidents not only strain our relationships with our trade partners, but they also expose the country to potential economic consequences. By aligning with a rogue state under sanctions, South Africa risks losing the trust and confidence of its major trading partners, thereby impacting economic ties and investments.
Russia's flagrant violations of Ukraine's territorial integrity, including the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, raise serious concerns about our country’s association with Putin. As these actions almost always go unpunished, they set a dangerous precedent for autocratic regimes worldwide. Our historical struggle against colonial domination and our nation’s promotion of human rights and democracy, as exemplified by leaders like Mandela and Mbeki, now appear contradictory when aligning with a leader known for undermining these principles. Such association undermines our credibility as a champion of human rights and democratic values, thereby affecting our regional influence and potential for economic growth.
Our dwindling economy is now at risk of total collapse, further compounded by decisions that discourage foreign direct investment. Attracting foreign investors requires a stable and credible foreign policy that aligns with democratic values and the principles of international law. However, by aligning with Putin's Russia, we send a conflicting message, deterring potential investors who value stability, transparency, and respect for human rights. This blunder jeopardises our economic growth and stability, hindering job creation, reducing government revenue, and exacerbating existing socio-economic challenges.
South Africa, as a major regional player, has traditionally held significant influence on the African continent. However, our acquiescence to Putin undermines the efforts made to promote democratic governance and respect for human rights across the continent.
Ramaphosa’s foreign policy blunders portend significant economic hardships for the country and the African continent. His high entropy foreign policy doctrine compromises our credibility, global standing, and potential for economic growth. The loss of credibility and trust among our trade partners undermines our economic ties and discourages foreign direct investment, exacerbating the already fragile state of the economy.
The economic consequences of Ramaphosa’s foreign policy blunder are particularly worrisome. With an economy teetering on the brink of collapse, it is essential for the government to prioritise policies that attract foreign direct investment, stimulate growth, and create job opportunities. However, by aligning with Putin's Russia, our leaders send a message of encouraging global instability, unpredictability, and a disregard for international norms. This deters potential investors who seek stability, transparency, and respect for the rule of law.
The consequences of this blunder are already apparent in strained relationships with major trading partners. Our association with Russia, a nation that does not even rank among our top 25 trading partners, raises concerns about our priorities and decision-making process. It risks alienating our key economic allies and missing out on potential economic opportunities with nations that share our values and economic interests.
To reverse this troubling trajectory, government needs to re-evaluate our foreign policy stance and prioritise alignment with democratic values, respect for human rights, and adherence to international law. Restoring our credibility as a responsible global actor is crucial for revitalising economic ties, attracting foreign direct investment, and regaining our position as a regional leader.
Our historical legacy as a champion of human rights and democracy should not be overshadowed by short-term alliances or economic considerations. By realigning our foreign policy with our foundational values and promoting stability and democratic governance, we can rebuild trust, attract investment, and foster economic growth.
Ramaphosa’s foreign policy blunder and association with Russian warmonger Putin carry significant economic consequences for our country and the African continent. The weak and indecisive stance taken by South Africa, coupled with overt military associations with Russia, undermine our credibility and global standing. This blunder jeopardises economic ties, discourages foreign direct investment, and undermines our historical commitment to human rights and democracy.
To mitigate the economic hardships and restore our once-preeminent position, we must re-evaluate our foreign policy, prioritise democratic values, and realign ourself with nations that, at a bare minimum, share our commitment to stability and respect for international norms.
While suspicions of kompromat cannot be substantiated without concrete evidence, the blind acquiescence displayed by our government towards Putin raises legitimate concerns. To maintain trust, preserve national sovereignty, and protect democratic institutions, it is essential for government to operate with transparency, accountability, and a principled foreign policy approach. Only through these measures can Ramaphosa’s administration dispel suspicions, address potential vulnerabilities, and reaffirm its commitment to the welfare and interests of its people.
This must surely be an inflection point for South Africa. With a multitude of seemingly intractable problems before us, a leader bereft of ideas on how to engage eruditely with his peers in the foreign policy sandbox is not the legacy our forebears envisioned for us.
Quo vadis, Ramaphosa?